Bitcoin Price News: BTC Retests Trend Line Support from Below – Is BTC Heading to $100K?

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the move today with a 1% gain in the past 24 hours and relatively stable trading volumes.

The top crypto has gone up in 4 out of the last 5 sessions as cryptos have recovered some of the territory they lost during the latest pullback.

Crypto’s Fear and Greed Index has stepped out of ‘Greed’ territory lately and currently sits at 54, down from a peak of 70 in the past 30 days. This means that investors have adopted a neutral stance as the macro backdrop remains a bit uncertain.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index – Source: CoinMarketCap

President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have now been implemented and will affect billions of dollars worth of goods that will now pay a higher levy to enter U.S. territory.

Market participants were spooked by the negative impact that these higher tariffs could have on the U.S. economic growth and inflation levels. The Federal Reserve could be forced to its their planned interest rate cuts for the year if inflation starts to tick higher, which favors a bearish outlook for cryptos.

Trump’s tariffs have overshadowed the latest pro-crypto moves on the legislative front such as the passing of the Genius Act.

BTC Breaks Key Trend Line and Risks a Much Bigger Drop

In a recent Bitcoin price prediction, we highlighted that Bitcoin had hit a key support area and was reacting positively at that particular price level.

BTC/USD Daily Price Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

However, the token pushed through and broke below that line and is now retesting it from below. This could either invalidate or confirm the breakout. If selling pressure is strong at this level, the odds will favor a much deeper correction as buyers did not have the strength to push the price above this marker.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also at a critical juncture as it tagged the 14-day moving average and is right at the mid-line. Everything seems to indicate that this is a decisive moment. We either get a big move toward $120K that invalidates the trend line break or BTC risks dropping once again to $110K and possibly lower.

A move toward $100K is not entirely off the table if the price breaks below $110,000. This would push BTC to correction territory and could blow up a sizable amount of long positions.

A Spike in Volatility Could Trigger a Cascade Effect

There’s a big buildup of bullish BTC positions in the futures market that a big downward move could wipe out.

Bitcoin Open Interest (Expressed in BTC) – Source: CoinGlass

Data from CoinGlass shows that open interest (OI) currently sits at $80 billion – just 10% below the metric’s all-time high expressed in USD. A significant decline below $110K would catch bulls off guard and could trigger liquidations way beyond $1 billion.

In the past few days, we have seen that minor 2% to 3% moves have flushed hundreds of millions in long positions in just 24 hours. Although BTC’s volatility has dropped dramatically in the past few months, big red candles are still common in the crypto market.

What would happen if a 6% to 8% single-day drop like the ones seen in March and April occurs these days? My bet is that liquidations could surpass this year’s records easily if that happens and trigger a cascade effect that pushes BTC to $100K faster than most would expect.