Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast: ETF Inflows Offset Fed Risks Ahead of Key Data; ETH Eyes $5k

ETF Flows Rescue Bitcoin—Can Bulls Retake $123K?

On Saturday, August 16, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.09%, partially reversing the previous session’s 0.74% loss to close at $117,631. Notably, BTC snapped a two-day losing streak.

The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to two weeks in the week ending August 15. Inflows supported BTC at current price levels. According to Farside Investors, key flows for the week included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net inflows of $887.7 million.
• Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $183.9 million.

Crucially, the weekly inflows reversed a significant portion of $1.332 billion net outflows from the first three trading sessions of the month. As of August, the US BTC-spot ETF market outflows have eased to $11.5 million. IBIT continued to dominate the spot BTC ETF space, with month-to-date inflows in excess of $1 billion.

ETH Extends Losing Streak Despite Spot ETH ETF Inflows

While the US BTC-spot ETF market bolstered BTC demand, ETH-spot ETF flows continued to impress. Ethereum fell 0.41% on Saturday, August 16, following a 2.34% loss in the previous day, closing at $4,426. Notably, ETH extended its losing streak to three sessions.

Investors likely locked in profits after striking $4,793 on August 14, the highest level since November 2021.

However, the US ETH-spot ETF market reported weekly net inflows of $2.852 billion, signaling robust demand. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net inflows of $2.317 billion, also dominating the spot ETH ETF market.

Nate Geraci, President at Nova Dius Wealth, highlighted ETHA’s market presence, stating:

“Nearly $340mil into iShares Ethereum ETF yesterday… Now 9-day inflow streak w/ $2.8bil new $$$. Over past *75* trading sessions, ETHA w/ only 4 days of outflows. $8bil new $$$ total. Historic numbers for a 1-year old ETF.”

Notably, spot BTC and ETH ETF inflows boosted market confidence ahead of a pivotal week for the global financial markets.

See our in-depth ETH vs BTC ETF flow breakdown here.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Legislative developments: the CLARITY Act’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US economic data: US Services PMI and jobless claims.
• The Fed: FOMC Meeting Minutes, Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Powell Speech.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing US recession risk, dovish Fed rhetoric, bipartisan support for crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high of 123,731.
• Bearish Scenario: Strong US data, hawkish Fed policy guidance, legislative roadblocks, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $110,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above key trend indicators, including the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. While the short-term trend remains bullish, but $110K support is key if momentum fades.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $120,000 could pave the way toward the August 14 record high of $123,731. A sustained move through $123,731 may bring the $130,000 level into sight.
• On the downside, a drop below the 50-day EMA could enable the bears to target the $110,000 support level. Sustained selling pressure may bring the 200-day EMA and the crucial $100,000 support level into play.

Ethereum Outlook Remains Bullish as Spot ETF Market Shines

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), the token trades well above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting bullish momentum.

• Upside target: A breakout above $4,500 could bring the August 14 high of $4,793 into play. A sustained move through the $4,793 mark may allow the bulls to target the November 2021 record high of $4,870 (Binance Exchange).
• On the downside, a drop below the $4,085 support level may pave the way toward the $3,563 support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.