XRP News Today: Vanguard Shift Fuels Fresh Bullish XRP Demand

A dead cat bounce or the start of a Santa Rally? XRP joined Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader market in a sharp rebound on Tuesday, December 2. Market tensions from surging Japanese Government Bond yields abated as 10-year JGB yields dropped, shifting focus to key developments from Main Street.

On Monday, December 1, XRP-spot ETFs reported robust inflows despite the market turmoil, suggesting resilient institutional demand for XRP. Monday’s inflows coincided with reports that Vanguard Group had U-turned on cryptos, granting brokerage clients access to crypto ETFs.

Demand for XRP-spot ETFs and broader market access to crypto-spot ETFs support a more bullish short- to medium-term outlook. These developments set the stage for a move toward $2.35.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind the breakout, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETFs Outmuscle BTC-Spot ETFs as BlackRock Suffers Outflow Crisis

On Monday, December 1, XRP-spot ETFs reported $89.65 million in net inflows, extending the inflow streak to 11 consecutive sessions. Crucially, ETF issuers reported the third-largest inflow since launch despite the token closing the session down 5.79%.

Crucially, the US XRP-spot ETF market outperformed the US BTC-spot ETF market’s inflows of just $8.5 million. Notably, BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $65.9 million in outflows, following $2.34 billion in net outflows in November. BlackRock previously disappointed XRP traders by delaying the launch of an iShares XRP Trust. Recent flow trends for its flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust should comfort the bulls.

Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) and Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) led the way on December 1, with inflows of $52.3 million and $28.41 million, respectively. However, Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) tops the inflow table, with inflows of $349.45 million, contributing $756.26 million in net inflows into the US XRP-spot ETF market.

Flow trends for Tuesday, December 2, will be crucial, given the reversal of Monday’s losses.

Vanguard Group Opens the Crypto Door to Brokerage Clients

XRP-spot ETF flow trends for Tuesday, December 2, will face heightened scrutiny. Vanguard Group unlocked the door for brokerage clients to invest in crypto-spot ETFs, potentially triggering a demand surge. Robust Main Street demand would tilt the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor, supporting a bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the Vanguard effect, stating:

“THE VANGUARD EFFECT: Bitcoin jumps 6% right around US open on first day after bitcoin ETF ban lifted. Coincidence? I think not.”

Main Street is seeing a seismic shift in attitudes toward cryptos. On Tuesday, December 2, Bank of America Private Bank & Wealth Management joined Vanguard Group in offering access to crypto. Bitwise Invest CEO Hunter Horsley shared the announcement, stating:

“Bank of America Private Bank & Wealth Management, one of the largest in the country (>$2 trillion), announced it will allow advisors to allocate 1-4% to Bitcoin starting in January. Grateful BITB is included in the options they’ve selected. Crypto is going mainstream.”

BoA Private Bank and Wealth Management could potentially include XRP if spot ETFs perform in line with predictions. XRP’s utility remains key to the XRP-spot ETF market outlook.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Intact

The December 2 rally reinforced the bullish medium-term outlook as several key price catalysts are likely to fuel demand for XRP, including:

• Broadening Main Street access to spot ETFs.
• The Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• Expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
• Easing concerns about a yen carry trade unwind that impacted markets in July and August 2024.

In my opinion, these price catalysts set the stage for a near-term (1-4 weeks) move toward $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) return to $3.

XRP Downside Risk to Bullish Outlook

However, traders should remain vigilant given the recent market volatility. Shifting sentiment toward the Fed and BoJ’s policy stances continue influencing market trends. XRP remains exposed to Bank of Japan or Fed-induced market shocks and the risk of a drop to the November low of $1.82 before a sustained move toward $3.

Downside risks that would likely derail the bullish short- to medium-term outlook include:

• If MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs), it will reduce blue-chip companies’ interest in using XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• The Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC rejects Bitcoin’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
• Weak inflows into XRP-spot ETFs and heavier BTC-spot ETF outflows.
• The Fed cuts interest rates in December but signals caution over further cuts.
• The BoJ hints at more rate hikes in 2026, sending JGB yields higher and triggering a yen carry trade unwind.

In my view, strong XRP-spot ETF inflows will likely drive the token toward the $2.35.

To summarize, the short-term outlook is cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP rallied 6.04% on Tuesday, December 2, reversing the previous day’s 5.78% loss to close at $2.1535. The token outperformed the broader market, which gained 5.45%.

Despite Tuesday’s recovery, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias. However, fundamentals have begun to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3223.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4997.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Bullish momentum would support a move toward the $2.35 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would bring the 200-day EMA and $2.5 into play.

However, given the downside risks, a $1.8239 stop-loss would be appropriate for traders holding long positions.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily inflows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s position on DATs.
• The Fed and the BoJ’s rate paths.

Bullish Scenario: What Happens if $2.2 Breaks?

Bullish events would send XRP toward the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would signal a bullish trend reversal, supporting a climb toward $2.5.

Outlook: $2.2 Resistance Key for Bullish Medium-Term Path

XRP faces a crucial test on Wednesday, December 3. Stronger inflows into XRP-spot ETFs and easing yen carry trade unwind risks could extend gains. Meanwhile, the progress of the Market Structure Bill, US economic indicators, the BoJ, and the Fed will also influence risk sentiment.

Falling JGB yields and bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill will likely strengthen demand for XRP, potentially sending the token toward $2.35.