30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – August 31, 2015 Forecast

December 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds continued to consolidate on Friday. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum appears to have shifted to the downside in reaction to the recovery in the U.S. equity markets. This market is being driven by the volatility in the equity markets. However, this week, traders will also be adjusting positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Over the week-end, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said that the Fed is aware of the recent turmoil in the market, but that it is focusing on the labor market and inflation. This leaves open the possibility of an interest rate hike in 2015. If the jobs report is stronger than expected then this timeline may be moved up.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main range is 145’30 to 161’17. Its retracement zone at 153’24 to 151’29 remains the primary downside target. Last week’s low at 153’30 stopped just short of the 50% level at 153’24 at 153’30.

The direction of the market today is likely to be determined by whether investors can hold 153’24. A sustained move over this level could lead to a rally into a pair of angles at 156’17 and 157’06.

If the buying is strong enough then look for a retracement of the 161’17 to 153’03 range. This target zone is 157’24 to 158’20.

A failure to hold the 50% level at 153’24 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep break into the Fibonacci level at 151’29. This is followed closely by an uptrending angle at 151’18.