30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – November 18, 2014 Forecast

Buyers tried to trigger an upside breakout by the December 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond market on Monday, but were thwarted by a pair of Gann angles at 142’09. Although buyers were able to take out the closing price reversal top at 142’08, they were unable to encourage enough buying to take out the price and the angles with conviction. This triggered a break back into the elongated retracement zone that has provided both support and resistance for almost a month.

The main range is 135’13 to 148’00. Its retracement zone is 141’23 to 140’07. T-Bond prices have consolidated inside this range since it first entered it on October 23. The sideways action suggests a volatile move is likely once traders take out either the 50% level at 141’23 or the 61.8% level at 140’07 with conviction. The timing of either move is difficult to forecast although a pair of Gann angles suggest it will likely occur around November 25.

The short-term range is 140’08 to 142’09. The pivot price formed by this range is 141’08. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

A hard break through 141’08 should trigger a move into the nearest uptrending angle at 140’21. This is followed by another uptrending angle at 140’11. The best support cluster is the November 7 bottom at 140’08 and the major Fibonacci level at 140’07. The daily chart opens up under this level with the October 3 bottom at 138’11 the next potential target.

Holding the short-term pivot at 141’08 will give the market a slight upside bias. The market could pick up strength if the buying can overcome the 50% level at 141’23. Crossing to the strong side of a long-term downtrending angle at 142’00 today will be another sign of strength. This could create the upside momentum needed to fuel the breakout over 142’09. The daily chart opens up over this level with 144’04 the next potential target.

Look for sideways action until traders commit to either a breakout over 141’23 or a breakdown under 140’07.