ADA Price Prediction: Failure to Hit $0.440 Would Test Buyers at $0.425

Key Insights:

• On Friday, cardano (ADA) fell by 0.68%. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the third quarter with a 5.43% loss.
• Input Output HK network updates failed to provide support, with Fed fear stemming from a pickup in US inflation weighing.
• The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.40 remains in play.

On Friday, ADA fell by 0.68%. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the month of September down 2.47% to $0.435. It was also a bearish third quarter, with ADA ending the quarter with a 5.43% loss.

A bullish start to the Friday session saw ADA strike an early high of $0.441. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.443, ADA slid to a late low of $0.429. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.430, ADA ended the session at $0.435.

Network updates took a backseat, with ADA succumbing to external market forces. US inflation figures for August weighed on riskier assets, with the NASDAQ 100 dragging the crypto market into the red.

Cardano Updates Failed to Deliver Support as Fed Fear Resurfaces

On Friday, Input Output HK released its weekly development report. Highlights included,

• Vasil functionality is available on the mainnet.
• Fund9 results.
• 100 projects launched on Cardano, up from 99 in the previous week.
• 1,113 projects are building on Cardano, up from 1,107.
• 50.4 million transactions, unchanged from the previous week.

While the number of projects launched continued on an upward trend, the markets will be looking for larger weekly increases following the Vasil hard fork.

Recently, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. These would need to materialize to support a sustainable ADA breakout.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.23% to $0.434. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from an early high of $0.436 to a low of $0.433.

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.435 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.441. A marked shift in risk sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.440.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.447 and $0.450 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.459.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.429 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.425 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.423. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.411.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.444. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.441) and the 50-day EMA ($0.444) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.447) and the 100-day EMA ($0.453). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.464. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.