April Comex Gold in Position to Accelerate Over $1899.80

Gold futures are trading at a multi-month high at the mid-session on Thursday tensions between Ukraine and Russia intensified overnight. Rising concerns of an imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia is driving investors out of riskier assets and into so-called safe-haven gold.

At 17:06 GMT, April Comex gold futures are trading $1899.40, up $27.90 or +1.49%. The SPDR Gold Share ETF (GLD) is at $177.07, up $2.21 or +1.26%.

Ongoing tension at the Russia-Ukraine border continued to impact market sentiment. The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations said Thursday the conflict had reached a “crucial moment” and that Russia is moving toward “an imminent invasion.” Ukraine accused pro-Russian separatists of attacking a village near the border.

President Joe Biden warned that the threat of Russia invading Ukraine is “very high,” telling reporters that an attack could come within “the next several days.”

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session on Thursday when buyers took out the November 16 main top at $1882.50. A trade through $1821.10 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $1845.40 will change the minor trend to down. This will also change the momentum.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The major range is the contract’s range at $2117.10 to $1682.40. April Comex gold is currently testing the lower level of its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $1899.80. This zone at $1899.80 to $1951.00 is controlling the longer-term direction of the futures contract.

The direction of the April Comex gold futures contract into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1899.80.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1899.80 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible acceleration into the Fibonacci level at $1951.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1899.80 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session pullback into $1861.60, but not necessarily lead to a change in the main trend.