April WTI Oil Strengthens Over $95.30, Weakens Under $94.00

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher early Monday but are off their high touched earlier in the session. Prices jumped on the opening after Western nations imposed new sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including blocking some banks from the SWIFT international payments system.

At 03:54 GMT, April WTI crude oil is trading $96.59, up $5.00 or +5.46%. On Friday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $65.80, down $0.54 or -0.81%.

Crude oil prices rose on heightened fears that oil supplies from the world’s second-largest producer could be disrupted. Nonetheless, last week’s high remained intact, suggesting traders may be waiting to see if the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, or how the sanctions affect Russia’s ability to produce and deliver crude oil.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $100.54 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through $87.46 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $90.06 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is $100.54 to $90.06. Its 50% level at $95.30 is support. The second minor range is $87.46. Its 50% level at $94.00 is another support level.

The major support is a long-term Fibonacci level at $90.74.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the April WTI crude oil futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the first pivot at $95.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $95.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a surge into last week’s multi-year high at $100.54. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $105.00 the next likely target price.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $95.30 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick test of the second pivot at $94.00. If it fails to hold then look for an acceleration into the major Fibonacci level at $90.74.

The Fib level is the last potential support before the minor bottom at $90.06 and the main bottom at $87.46.

The trend will change to down if $87.46 fails to hold. This could trigger an acceleration into $81.19 – $76.62.