AUD to USD Forecast: Aussie Dollar Awaits Job Ads and China PMI Data

Australian Job Ads, the China Caixin Services PMI, and the RBA

On Monday (May 6), ANZ-Indeed job ad numbers will influence buyer demand for the AUD/USD. Economists forecast job ads to increase by 1.1% in April after declining by 1.0% in March.

Better-than-expected figures could signal an improving labor market environment. Tighter labor market conditions would support wage growth and increase disposable income. Upward trends in disposable income could fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. The RBA could respond with a more hawkish stance on monetary policy following the recent inflation numbers.

Later in the morning session, the China Caixin Services PMI also needs consideration. Economists forecast the Caixin Services PMI to fall from 52.7 to 52.5 in April. Better-than-expected numbers could signal an improving macroeconomic environment.

A pickup in economic activity and demand would support the Australian economy and the Aussie dollar. China accounts for one-third of Australian exports. Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio of over 50%, with 20% of the Australian workforce in trade-related jobs.

US Economic Calendar: Fed Speakers in Focus

Later in the Monday session, investors should monitor FOMC member commentary. Reactions to the US Jobs Report, the ISM Services PMI, and views on the timing of a Fed rate cut could move the dial.

FOMC members Thomas Barkin and John Williams are on the calendar to speak on Monday (May 6).

The US Jobs Report and ISM Services PMI raised investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut.

According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the chances of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in September fell from 42.6% to 32.6% in the week ending May 3.

Short-Term Forecast

Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on FOMC member speeches and the RBA press conference on Tuesday (May 7). Recent inflation figures from Australia raised investor expectations of a more hawkish RBA rate path. In contrast, FOMC members could support bets on a September Fed rate cut and tilt monetary policy toward the Aussie dollar.

AUD/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

An Aussie dollar return to the $0.66500 handle would support a move toward the $0.67003 resistance level.

Australian job ads, the China Caixin Services PMI, and Fed speeches need investor consideration.

Conversely, an AUD/USD fall through the 200-day EMA could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA. A break below the 50-day EMA would bring the $0.64582 support level into play.

With a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 59.72, the AUD/USD could move to the $0.67003 resistance level before entering overbought territory.