AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: Aussie Makes a Move

It is another quiet morning for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. There are no economic indicators for investors to consider, with the Australian and New Zealand markets closed for Easter Monday.

The lack of stats and light trading volumes will likely leave the pairs to respond further to the US Jobs Report from Friday and jump in bets of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in May.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point interest rate hike sits at 66.0%, up from 48.4% one week earlier. With no US economic indicators to influence later today, Fed chatter would move the dial.

On the geopolitical front, US-China tensions need monitoring.

AUD/USD Price Action

The Aussie was up 0.20% to $0.66739. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.66579 before rising to a high of $0.66745.

Technical Indicators

The AUD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6664 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6688 and the Friday high of $0.66914. A return to $0.6680 would signal a bullish session. However, the Aussie Dollar would need a ‘risk on’ US session to support a breakout day.

In the case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6715. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6765.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6637 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub-$0.66. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6614 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6563.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bearish signals. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.66969. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.6688) and the 50-day ($0.66969) and 100-day ($0.66982) EMAs would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6715). However, failure to move through R1 ($0.6688) and the 50-day EMA ($0.66969) would leave S1 ($0.6637) in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the Kiwi was up 0.08% to $0.62546. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall to an early low of $0.62445 before rising to a high of $0.62562.

Technical Indicators

The NZD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6243 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6277. A return to $0.6275 would signal a bullish session. However, Fed chatter and market risk sentiment must support a breakout.

In the case of another breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6304. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6465.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6216 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.62 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6182.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6121.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bearish signals. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.62636. The 50-day narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converged on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.62636) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.6277) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6304). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the 100-day ($0.62495) and 200-day ($0.62477) EMAs and S1 ($0.6216) in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.