Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Hold the Weekly Trend—But Daily Signal Raises Flags

$4380.99 Spike Ends with Daily Reversal, but Weekly Uptrend Still Intact

Gold (XAU/USD) finished last week higher at $4253.98, up $237.30 or +5.91%, despite printing a bearish reversal on the daily chart Friday. The weekly structure, however, remains bullish — the market posted its ninth consecutive higher weekly close, settling in the upper half of a wide $382 range between $3998.15 and the new all-time high at $4380.99.

The trend remains up on the weekly timeframe with no confirmed sign of a top, but last Friday’s daily candle demands attention. The range was the largest since early 2020, and the high-volume spike followed by a fade into the close signals growing two-way risk.

Fed Rate Cut Bets and Banking Stress Drove the Rally

Fundamentals were firmly in the bulls’ corner. Fed rate cut odds continue to firm, with markets pricing in 25 basis point cuts in both October and December. Several Fed officials reinforced the dovish tone, citing slowing growth, labor softness, and rising credit risk.

Banking sector stress re-emerged after Zions and Western Alliance disclosed significant losses, triggering renewed risk aversion. Combined with falling Treasury yields — the 10-year dipped to 4.001% — and a weakening dollar, gold’s appeal as a non-yielding haven remained strong.

The government shutdown also played a role, choking off economic data flow and pushing traders to lean heavily on Fed speak to frame macro expectations. That backdrop supported aggressive positioning, even as gold entered technically overbought territory on shorter timeframes.

Gold Price Forecast: Weekly Bias Still Bullish Above $3846.27

From a technical standpoint, the key short-term range now spans from the August low at $3311.56 to last week’s $4380.99 high. The 50% retracement of that move sits at $3846.27 — now a major weekly support level and the first downside level that would question the integrity of the broader uptrend. Below that, the former breakout high at $3500.20 comes into play as secondary support.

The 52-week moving average at $3146.57 remains the longer-term trend anchor.

Despite Friday’s intraday reversal, the weekly chart shows no top. The structure of higher-highs and higher-lows remains intact, and the market continues to respect the breakout structure.

Unless price breaks back below $3846.27, the long-term gold bias remains bullish — but traders should expect increased volatility as the market consolidates recent gains. Breaking this level won’t change the trend, but it could alter the momentum.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.