AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: Business Confidence in Focus

It is a quiet morning for the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. This morning, Australian business confidence figures will draw interest. Following the RBA interest rate hike, business sentiment will give a snapshot of the macroeconomic environment.

Economists forecast the NAB Business Confidence Index to increase from -1 to 1 in April. While the headline figure will influence, the devil will be in the details. Labor costs, purchase costs, final product costs, and retail prices will be focal points alongside forward orders and employment.

With no stats from New Zealand to influence the NZD/USD, market risk sentiment will provide direction, with investors likely to respond further to the US Jobs Report.

Later today, there are no US economic indicators for investors to consider. A lack of stats will leave Fed chatter and market risk sentiment to influence.

AUD/USD Price Action

This morning, the AUD/USD was up 0.03% to $0.67521. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.67430 before rising to a high of $0.67550.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

The AUD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6732 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6775. A move through the Friday high of $0.67571 would signal a bullish session. However, the Aussie would need the business confidence survey and market risk sentiment to support a pre-US session breakout.

In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6800. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6869.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6707 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6663.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6595.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bullish signals. The AUD/USD sits above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.66917. The 50-day EMA crossed through the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($0.6707) and the 200-day EMA ($0.66917) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.6775) to target R2 ($0.6800). However, a fall through S1 ($0.6707) and the 200-day EMA ($0.66917) would bring the 50-day ($0.66789) and 100-day ($0.66780) EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal.

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the NZD/USD was up 0.01% to $0.62933. A bullish start to the day saw the NZD/USD rise from an opening price of $0.62881 to a high of $0.62952.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

The NZD/USD has to avoid the $0.6291 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6318. A move through the Friday high of $0.63159 would signal a bullish session. However, the market risk sentiment must support a pre-US session breakout.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6343. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6396.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6265 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD should steer clear of sub-$0.6250 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6238.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6185.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bullish signals. The NZD/USD sits above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.62227. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($0.62227) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.6318) to target R2 ($0.6343). However, a fall through S1 ($0.6265) would bring S2 ($0.6238) and the 50-day EMA ($0.62227) into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.