AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to Look Weak

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has firmly broken down below the 0.6450 level, an area that previously has been a major support level. All things being equal, this is a market that sees a lot of noise underneath, and therefore I think the downside is probably somewhat limited in the short term, but I do think at this point in time, you’re probably going to be looking at the idea of fading rallies at the first signs of exhaustion. All things being equal, this is a market that will be very closely related to risk appetite.

After all, the Australian dollar is considered to be a commodity currency and therefore it is something that a lot of people will run to when it’s time to take on risk and run from when the opposite occurs. The US dollar of course is a safety currency so that’s also worth paying attention to as well. In general, I think this is a market that if we do cross back above the 0.6450 level, we might see a little bit more of a recovery, but the 50-day EMA above I think would offer pretty significant resistance.

Underneath the 0.63 level would be your target, and I would not be surprised at all to see this market reach that level eventually, but we are getting a little stretched to the downside, so I would prefer to short this market after a bounce and signs of exhaustion. In that scenario, you get more “breathing room” to take advantage of in a strong downtrend.

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