AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains Again

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 08.08.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday, but continues to see trouble near the 0.66 level, which is an area that’s been important multiple times in the past, from both support and resistance. Keep in mind that the RBA recently has chosen to stand pat, instead of raising rates like everybody anticipated. This probably is the beginning of trouble for the Aussie, especially considering that the risk appetite around the world seems to be taking a bit of a hit, and of course the Federal Reserve is staying very tight with its monetary policy. In fact, when the end of the tight monetary policy in the United States is, nobody truly knows.

The 0.65 level underneath could be an area of interest, as it had been supported previously and of course it’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If the market were to break down below there, we could go down to the 0.64 level. The 0.64 level of course is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to as well, as it has also previously been very important.

If we were to turn around a break above the 0.66 level, then it’s possible the Australian dollar could go looking to the 50-Day EMA, near the 0.67 level. The 0.67 level is an area that I’d be interested in selling this pair if we can see some type of exhaustion. All things being equal, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before sellers come into this market on signs of exhaustion, and is exactly what we have seen in the last couple of sessions.

You should also keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the commodity markets and the idea of global growth. Because of this, it is highly sensitive to the global economy, which is shaky to say the least. All things being equal, this is a situation where I think you continue to look to the US dollar as not only a safety asset, but one that pays more interest.

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