AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Slams Into Resistance

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 28.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar took off to the upside at the open on Monday, taking out the 0.66 level, albeit very briefly. At this point, it looks like the market is trying to build up the necessary momentum to break above there, and if and when it does, that could send the Australian dollar all the way to the 0.69 level. We are just above the 200-Day EMA, which in and of itself will attract a certain amount of attention. Currently, short-term pullbacks will continue to attract attention, and the aforementioned 200-Day EMA could come into the picture as short-term support. Underneath there, we have the 0.65 level looking to offer support as well, due to “market memory” in that general vicinity, as we had seen a lot of resistance previously.

All things being equal, I do believe that this is starting to turn into somewhat of a “buy on the dips” market, especially if we do close above the 0.66 level at the end of the day. That would be a very big victory for the buyers, and at this point I think you would start to see plenty of value hunters willing to get involved in the market. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 0.65 level, that could send the Australian dollar lower, perhaps opening up a move down to the 0.64 level. That being said, it looks less and less likely that the sellers are going to be able to take over, as it looks like most traders are out there betting that interest rates in the United States have peaked. With this, there is a bit of cautious optimism for a trend change.

The one thing I think you can probably count on is a lot of noise in this pair, especially as the Aussie is so heavily influenced by risk appetite overall. The Australian economy is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy, and of course has to take into account whether or not commodity demand will pick up or fall going forward. With that, I think you’ve got a situation where it is probably only a matter of time before we get an explosive move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.