AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Slams Into the Top of the Wedge

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 25.09.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday, slamming into the top of the falling wedge, which of course is a major technical analysis aspect. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of resistance above, especially as we ended up forming a shooting star that touched the 50-Day EMA. Furthermore, the 0.65 level has been massive resistance, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see that area act as a block for buyers.

Underneath, we have the 0.64 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where a lot of people will be paying close attention to, as it was massive support. Dragging down to the 0.6350 level we see a lot of buying pressure, so if we were to break down below there it’s likely that we could go much lower. In general, the Aussie is very noisy at the moment, so therefore we need to pay close attention to our position sizing.

Looking at the chart, I would also bring to the forefront the idea that the Aussie is very highly correlated to the risk appetite around the world, and of course the global commodity markets. Australia is like the general store for Asia, meaning that they supply Asia with most of its raw materials, and therefore there are a lot of crosscurrents in general.

The one thing that I would keep in mind is that the market is going to continue to jump back and forth, as we are most certainly in some type of transition at the moment, so therefore I would be very cautious. If we broke above the 0.6520 level, then I would be a buyer, but until that happens, I still look at the Aussie dollar with a fair amount of suspicion. The candlestick on Friday was of course bullish, but we’ve seen quite a bit of selling pressure in the previous days of the week to show just how little the buyers have in conviction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.