AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – February 28, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading flat-to-slightly higher on Thursday, following yesterday’s steep sell-off. Keeping a lid on prices is renewed uncertainty about U.S.-China trade negotiations. These concerns were raised on Wednesday after comments by U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer dimmed positive expectations about a near-term trade deal between the U.S. and China.

At 08:20 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7143, down 0.0002 or +0.02%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7296 will change the main trend to up. A move through .7053 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7070 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7079 to .7153 is controlling the direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .6764 to .7296. Its retracement zone at .7030 to .6967 is the primary downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7153.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7153 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the uptrending Gann angle at .7164 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at .7207. This is a potential trigger point for a surge into a downtrending Gann angle at .7242.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7153 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out today’s intraday low at .7127 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the major 50% level at .7079 the next downside target.

Taking out .7079 and .7070 is likely to extend the selling into the main bottom at .7053, followed by the short-term 50% level at .7030.

Traders will be watching today’s U.S. Advance GDP report, due to be released at 13:30 GMT. It is expected to come in at 2.2%, down from 3.4%. Traders expect to see damage from the government shutdown and the U.S.-China trade dispute.