AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – January 16, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is drifting sideways to lower for a third session on Wednesday as traders await more details from China regarding fresh stimulus. The lack of progress in trade talks may also be weighing on the market although higher level talks between the United States and China are scheduled for later this month.

At 1611 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7180, down 0.0019 or -0.26%. Its low for the session is .7161.

 

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Momentum shifted back to down earlier today. A trade through .7247 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. It turned down earlier today when sellers took out the last swing bottom at .7175. This also shifted momentum to the downside. A trade through .7226 and .7236 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum back to the upside.

The main range is .7394 to .6764. Its retracement zone at .7153 to .7079 is controlling the direction of the Forex pair. These levels are also new support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .7180, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session will likely be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7153.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7153 will indicate the presence of buyers. They likely came in on the low at .7161 in an effort to defend the Fibonacci level. The first resistance is the minor top at .7226. This is followed by the downtrending Gann angle at .7234 and another minor top at .7236.

Taking out .7236 will likely lead to a test of the main top at .7247. Overcoming this top will change the main trend to up.

Bearish Scenario

A failure at .7153 will signal that the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a quick test of a steep uptrending Gann angle at .7124. This angle is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .7079 the next major target.