AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold .7379 to Sustain Upside Momentum with .7499 Next Target

The Australian Dollar soared on Thursday as a boom in global commodity prices boosted the resource-leveraged currency. Also helping to boost the Aussie was the news that Australia would open to international travel as early as November 1.

Global strength in resource and energy prices has been boosting the commodity-linked currency for weeks. Additionally, the jump in the Aussie has caught many speculators on the wrong side of the market, triggering huge buy stops.

On Thursday, the AUD/USD settled at .7416, up 0.0036 or 0.49%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7427 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .7226 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .7324 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The AUD/USD is currently trading inside a long-term retracement zone at .7379 to .7499.

The short-term range is .7478 to .7170. Its 50% level at .7324 is new support.

The minor range is .7170 to .7427. If the minor trend changes to down then look for a pullback into its retracement zone at .7298 to .7268.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7416.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7416 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out .7427 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible acceleration into the major 50% level at .7499, followed by the July 13 main top at .7503.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7416 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the major Fibonacci level at .7379.

Taking out .7379 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the support cluster at .7324.

If .7324 fails to hold then look for a pullback into the retracement zone at .7298 to .7268. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this area.

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