AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Slow Grind into .7477 – .7462; Momentum Could Change Over .7499

The Australian Dollar is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar early Thursday with the greenback garnering support from investors betting on a huge U.S. payrolls figure. The price action suggests investors are downplaying upbeat domestic data while awaiting Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which is forecast to show a solid rise of 700,000, with some guesses coming in at over 1 million.

At 04:57 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7490, down 0.0010 or -0.13%.

Australia’s data were upbeat, though overshadowed by continued lockdowns across the country with Sydney reporting 24 new locally acquired cases. The outbreaks have so far had only a limited effect on the overall economy as house prices surged further in June, boosting household wealth to historic highs.

In a positive sign for further jobs growth, official data showed job vacancies jumped 23.4% in the May quarter to an historic high. Separate figures showed Australia’s trade surplus also neared a record peak of A$9.7 billion ($7.26 billion) in May on the back of rising exports, particularly for iron ore.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7477 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through .7617 will change the main trend to up.

On the downside, the long-term support comes in at .7499 to .7379. This zone stopped the selling at .7477 on June 21.

The short-term range is .7776 to .7477. Its retracement zone at .7627 to .7662 is the nearest resistance area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7499.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7499 will indicate the presence of sellers. This should trigger a quick test of .7477, followed by the December 21, 2020 main bottom at .7462. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into .7379 to .7372.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7499 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a minor pivot at .7551. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Overtaking it will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next potential upside target .7617, followed closely by .7627.