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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .7712 to .7669 Retracement Zone Sets the Tone

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jun 16, 2021, 03:40 UTC

The direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7712 and .7669.

AUD/USD

In this article:

The Australian Dollar is trading flat early Wednesday as traders weighed the chances that the U.S. Federal Reserve may signal an eventual easing of stimulus when it releases its monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT later in the day. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will follow the initial announcements with a press conference.

At 02:50 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7693, up 0.0006 or +0.06%.

On Tuesday, the Aussie was pressured after minutes from the domestic central bank’s June meeting signaled a continuation of its accommodative stance. The Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to extend its bond purchase program beyond September, minutes from its June policy meeting showed, with members calling the program “one of the factors underpinning the accommodative conditions necessary for the economic recovery”.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through .7776 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .7646 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is .7532 to .7891. The AUD/USD is currently testing is retracement zone at .7712 to .7669. This area has held as support for close to six weeks.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is potential resistance. This zone stopped rallies four times over the last six weeks.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7712 and .7669.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7712 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into a minor pivot at .7725. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could extend the rally into the main 50% level at .7770, followed by the main top at .7776.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7669 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the main bottom at .7646. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target coming in at .7586.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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