AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Key Levels Signal Diverging Trends Across Majors

The Australian Dollar remains under pressure this week as the pair failed to break above the 0.6550 level. A stronger US Dollar and firmer Treasury yields have weighed on the pair. Moreover, rising uncertainty ahead of the Trump-Zelenskyy summit has added further pressure.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index has recovered to near 98. This recovery came after a two-week low last week. The rising yields and safe-haven demand supported the Greenback. However, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September kept gains limited. The balance between risk aversion and policy easing is shaping USD flows.

Moreover, the geopolitical tensions remain a key driver for AUD/USD. The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting with European leaders raised uncertainty. The shift from ceasefire talks to long-term security planning has lifted hopes of stability. However, the market remains defensive.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates to 3.60%. The central bank flagged weak productivity and lower consumption. Moreover, the GDP forecasts were revised down, and further easing is possible. This policy divergence with the Fed pressures AUD/USD.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate held steady and full-time jobs increased. The chart below shows that the unemployment rate for July was 4.2%, while the full-time employment has reached 60.5k.

These figures suggest hiring remains resilient. However, substantial employment is not enough to offset weak consumption and slower growth. The RBA remains cautious, limiting support for the currency.

Australia’s consumer confidence data will gauge household sentiment. On the US side, FOMC minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will guide Fed expectations. If the Fed confirms a September cut, AUD/USD could stabilise. However, if policy signals remain hawkish, the pair risks deeper losses below support levels.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Price Uncertainty

The 4-hour chart for AUDUSD shows consolidation below the 0.6550 level, reflecting market uncertainty. Immediate support lies at 0.6440, and a break below this level could push the pair toward 0.6380 and 0.6320.

Since the pair failed to break above 0.6650, bearish pressure is developing, and a drop below 0.6320 would confirm further downside. On the other hand, a breakout above 0.6550 would signal short-term bullish momentum and open the door for additional upside.

The daily chart shows strong price fluctuations, with the pair rebounding from the long-term support at 0.6170. Recent moves have pushed the price below the 50-day SMA, though it remains above the 200-day SMA. This setup reflects uncertainty, as a break below the 200-day SMA at 0.6390 would be bearish and signal further downside in the pair.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Bullish Price Development

The 4-hour chart for NZDUSD shows that the pair is building a positive structure above support at 0.5870. A break above 0.5970 in the short term could open the path toward 0.6140. Recently, the pair has been consolidating in a tight range while searching for direction.

However, the strong rebound from long-term support at 0.5560, followed by sustained strength above 0.5870, suggests that the next move in NZDUSD is likely to be higher.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Negative Price Action

The chart for USDJPY shows that the pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern below the 151 level. The pair is consolidating above the red trendline while showing negative price action below 148.30. A break below 146.30 would likely trigger a substantial drop toward the 142 level. Overall, USDJPY continues to trade within the long-term consolidation zone between 140 and 151.