AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Supported by Australia’s Employment Surge

Australia Jobs Data Boosts AUD/USD Toward Key Resistance

AUDUSD rebounds higher after the release of Australia employment report. Australia’s Unemployment Rate was 4.1% in April, matching expectations. However, the Employment Change surprised to the upside, rising by 89K compared to 32.2K in March and far above the forecast of 20K.

Job growth was primarily led by full-time positions, which boosts confidence in the labor market. The chart below shows that full-time employment increased by 59.5K in April, compared to a 29.5K rise in part-time jobs. Based on this data, AUD/USD may gain upside momentum, as strong labor figures reduce expectations of near-term RBA rate cuts. The pair could test resistance near recent highs if risk sentiment remains supportive.

Moreover, a temporary US-China tariff truce boosted market confidence. With lower global trade tension, risk-on flows favor commodity currencies like the AUD. This backdrop gives the Australian Dollar additional upside potential.

USD/JPY Reacts to Fed Liquidity Reversal and Bond Market Moves

The Federal Reserve continues tightening policy, but quantitative tightening is slowing. A sharp drop in the Treasury General Account (TGA) boosted liquidity in April, followed by a reversal in May. Commercial bank reserves rose and then fell, signaling a gradual tightening in financial conditions. This change may reduce excess liquidity in markets and support the US Dollar, especially if investors expect the Fed to remain cautious on rate cuts.

Moreover, long-term US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield breaking resistance at 4.5%. A breakout could target 5.0%, widening the yield gap between the US and Japan.

This supports USD/JPY in the short term, as Japanese yields remain anchored by the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy. However, if tightening US liquidity triggers market stress, investors may return to the Japanese Yen as a safe haven, limiting upside in USD/JPY.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern

The 4-hour chart for AUD/USD shows that the pair is forming an ascending broadening wedge pattern within a larger symmetrical broadening wedge. The price is consolidating within the ascending broadening wedge and shows strong volatility. A break above $0.6540 is required for the bulls to gain control. However, a break below $0.6370 would indicate further downside.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Consolidation

The daily chart for NZD/USD shows that the pair is consolidating around the blue trendline within the orange zone, indicating strong volatility. The strong rally from the long-term support zone of $0.55–$0.56 suggests that any correction in NZD/USD may offer a buying opportunity to continue the bullish momentum.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Descending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for USD/JPY shows that the rebound from the 140 level within the descending broadening wedge was bullish and formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern. A break above 148.30 will indicate positive momentum toward 151. However, a break below 144 would signal further downside.