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U.S. Dollar Tests Yearly Lows As Pullback Continues: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jun 30, 2025, 16:16 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD moved above the 1.1750 level as traders focused on Fed policy outlook.
  • USD/CAD pulled back amid rising demand for commodity-related currencies.
  • USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle below the support level at 143.50 - 144.00.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Tests New Lows

DXY
DXY 300625 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure as traders react to Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index report. The report indicated that Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index increased from -15.3 in May to -12.7 in June, compared to analyst consensus of -10. From a big picture point of view, traders stay focused on dovish Fed policy outlook and Trump’s desire to name Powell’s successor by September.

The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 96.70 – 96.90 range. A move below the 96.70 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the next support, which is located in the 95.40 – 95.60 range.

EUR/USD Tests New Highs As Traders Stay Bullish

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 300625 4h Chart

EUR/USD is moving higher as traders focus on inflation data from Germany. Inflation Rate declined from 2.1% in May to 2.0% in June, while analysts expected that it would increase to 2.2%.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.1785 – 1.1800, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.1895 – 1.1910.

GBP/USD Remains Stuck Below The 1.3750 Level

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 300625 4h Chart

GBP/USD is mostly flat as traders continue to take profits after the strong rally. From the technical point of view, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance at 1.3730 – 1.3750 to gain additional upside momentum in the near term.

A move above the 1.3750 level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.3815 – 1.3835.

USD/CAD Is Losing Ground At The Start Of The Week

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 300625 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back as demand for commodity-related currencies increased despite the pullback in the oil markets.

If USD/CAD moves below the 1.3600 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3550 – 1.3565.

USD/JPY Tests Support At 143.50 – 144.00

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 300625 4h Chart

USD/JPY is moving lower despite the disappointing Industrial Production report from Japan. The report showed that Industrial Production increased by +0.5% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +3.5%.

In case USD/JPY declines below the 143.50 level, it will head towards the next support level at 140.00 – 140.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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