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Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, September 13, 2019

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday but ran into resistance again at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Above there, the 0.69 level is also resistance and that of course we have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Remember, this is a market that is very sensitive to the US/China trade situation which of course has gotten a little bit better recently, but at the end of the day we haven’t really seen major progress. Yes, things are getting a little bit better but in the end we still have a long way to go.

AUD/USD Video 13.09.19

To the downside I think the 0.68 level would be the target, and then eventually the lows. It’s only a matter time before we see some type of negative news or attitude coming out of either Beijing or Washington DC, and that will send the Aussie dollar right back down. The one thing that is picking up the Aussie dollar beyond the recent conciliatory terms between the Americans and the Chinese is the fact that gold is going very well. However, that is not going to be enough to pick up the Aussie as one of the main reasons gold has rallied is due to a safety run, which of course doesn’t work out very good for commodity currencies. The 200 day EMA is above at the 0.70 level, and if we broke above there then things could change but until then I treat the Aussie with suspicion.

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