AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar tries to rally but fails

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, showing signs of weakness after initially reaching towards the downtrend line that I have marked on this chart.
Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, March 22, 2019

The Australian dollar initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday, showing signs of bullish pressure. However, we still have a lot of drama when it comes to the US/China situation, and therefore it’s likely that this pair will struggle as the Australian dollar will continue to be held hostage to what’s going on over there, so even if we do get a move to the upside, it’s going to continue to be somewhat short-lived and my best estimation. After all, this is a market that has shown a proclivity to follow right along with the latest headlines, and of course what’s going on in the mainland as well.

AUD/USD Video 22.03.19

The Chinese are starting to add stimulus to their economy, so if we get a bit of a boost over there it’s likely that the Australian dollar will rally due to the fact that the Australian economy is highly sensitive to exports for Chinese manufacturing. Remember, the Australian economy has a lot of mining and hard commodities involved in it, so it makes sense that if the Chinese are manufacturing more, or perhaps even picking up construction, Australian companies will benefit from that. Ultimately, this is a barometer for Sino-American relations, and of course trade flow.

The Federal Reserve has backed away from being hawkish, and that of course will have an influence on the greenback itself. Because of this, all we need is a little bit of good news coming from either Australia or China to reach to the upside. The 0.70 level underneath is the beginning of massive support, extending down to the 0.68 level. That’s an area that has offered massive support on longer-term charts. Because of this, I continue to buy dips.

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