AUD/USD Price Forecast – The Australian Dollar Continues to Grind Higher

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar fell during trading on Friday to reach the 0.70 level. This is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen a lot of action previously. It is interesting to see that it held, but at this point, we are still very much in a downtrend. The candlestick for the day does look somewhat bullish, so it appears that we have more of a correction ahead. Whether or not we can take off to the upside is a completely different question, and I would not consider the Australian dollar “broken out” until we get above the 0.72 handle.

If we turn around a breakdown below the 0.70 level, then the market is likely to go to the 0.68 handle, which is where we had bounced from previously. Breaking through that would open up the bottom of the market, but I do not think that will be easily done. Whether or not we can of the longer term might be a different question, but clearly, there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to the global markets and economies. That typically favors the US dollar, especially against the Australian dollar, which is so highly levered to China, and the rest of Asia, as well as commodities. If demand drops, it hits those areas particularly hard.

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve is still extraordinarily tight, so that also has driven the US dollar higher. The market will continue to be very noisy, but I think it is probably only a matter of time before we get an opportunity to short this market.

AUD/USD Price Forecast Video 23.05.22

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