The Australian dollar initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday to give back gains as we continue to see plenty of fear out there.
The Australian dollar initially shot higher during the day on Wednesday to get back gains rather quickly as it looks extraordinarily negative. At this point, the 0.6850 level is being threatened, and breaking down below that level opens up a huge move lower. If you look at the last several days, it seems like this is almost a foregone conclusion.
If we do break down to that level, then it will be accompanied by US dollar strength everywhere. After all, the Australian dollar has been rather strong compared to its contemporaries against the US dollar, and therefore I think you probably have a situation where the market will continue to be a bit more stubborn, but it also needs to find the need to play a little bit of “catch up.”
The 50 Day EMA sits at the 0.6950 level and is starting to slope lower, so if we do get some type of turn around, I think that could be a bit of a barrier. After that, then you have the possibility of the 0.70 level coming into the picture as well, as it should also be resistance.
I don’t have any interest in buying this currency right now, but I do like the idea of fading short-term rallies, which has worked out quite well as of late. Ultimately, this is a market that is in a downtrend, and if we get back down to the 0.67 level, we will have to determine whether or not that is going to be a massive double bottom, or if it’s going to be broken through. If it does, that will cause a major plunge downward.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.