AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian dollar chisels away at support

If we break down below this past candle, it’s likely that the Australian dollar will go hunting the 0.70 level, possibly even the 0.68 level after that. We certainly don’t look very healthy, and keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy, something that is being punished by the Trump administration currently. As the trade war continues between the Chinese and the Americans, the Australian dollar will continue to suffer.

At this point, if we can break above the top of the candle for the week, I might be convinced that the pair can go to the 0.7350 level. However, it looks to me as if we are much more likely to break down below the bottom of this past week’s candle, which opens the door to much lower levels. The Australian dollar has been getting hammered every time it does try to rally, so I think that you would probably be better served to sell rallies if you get that opportunity. All things being equal though, this doesn’t look good and I think we are probably going to revisit the lows sometime this fall.

However, if there was some type of thawing of the relations between the Americans and the Chinese, that would turn this pair around immediately as the Australian supply so much of the Chinese economy with raw materials. Until then, this pair is probably a “sell only” situation.

AUD/USD Video 10.09.18