AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian dollar looks sick

The Australian dollar has recently rallied over the last several weeks, but the previous week was a very negative looking, with this week initially rallying but finding trouble at a previous resistance barrier. Now while I do not think that we are looking at a massive break down waiting to happen, this certainly shows that there is a lot of negativity in this market. I believe that we will probably try to grind our way down to the 0.70 level underneath, which has been massive support and of course has a certain amount of psychological importance tied to it. Having said that, if we break above the top of the shooting star that’s a very bullish sign and we could go looking towards the 0.7350 level.

AUD/USD Video 17.12.18

The 0.7250 level is essentially “fair value” in the consolidation area that we have been trading in, so it makes sense that there would be a lot of interest in that region. However, the shape of this candle tells me that buyers simply cannot hang onto the gains, so it’s likely to continue to be a market where sellers are willing to jump in. On Friday morning, China released horrible economic figures, and that of course is in helping the situation either as the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy. Beyond that, we have the trade war going on and although there has been a few minor signs of conciliatory tone, we are still a long way away from solving that issue, which of course the Aussie is very sensitive to.