AUD/USD made a five-wave decline from 2011 highs, now completed at the 0.550 level because of a sharp recovery out of a downward channel which is strong evidence of a reversal.
This reversal is bullish now and should unfold in three waves, so be aware of more upside after pullback.
On daily chart, AUDUSD has been very bullish since March 2021, but then it turned down for a deep pullback with some sharp leg down so retracement is deeper and longer in time, but still a three wave move from the high which looks like a perfect A-B-C retracement with wave C of B) bounce now away from some strong support. However, we still need rally back to 0.7520 to confirm a bullish continuation.
Looking into 4h chart, AUDUSD is coming even lower, now testing the 78.6% Fibonacci level which is a final Fibonacci level for a potential bounce. There is still chance for a bullish price action from here, but pair would have to see then a bullish close for the week, somewhere above 0.7311. Until that resistance holds, there is also still valid a bearish interpretation after completed wave four near 0.7490.
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Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that, he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com.