AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up a Bit at the 200-Day EMA

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 06.12.22

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, reaching the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA is a widely followed technical indicator, so it is worth noting that the indicator is flattening out right here where we have touched it 3 times, so I think we are at the “put up or shut up” point for the Aussie dollar. This is an area that I think will be very important for the next several days, so I anticipate a lot of choppy and difficult behavior.

If we turn around and break down below the bottom of the hammer from the Friday session, then it is likely that the market will continue its longer term downtrend, but there are a lot of questions between now and then. There is very little in the way of news announcements this week, so I think a lot of this will come down to the reaction to the major announcements next week. The Federal Reserve meeting is by far the biggest, but we also have an ECB meeting that could have an influence on the US dollar itself.

All things being equal, keep in mind that the Australian dollar is very sensitive to the commodities markets, so we will have to pay attention to that, as well as the global growth situation. I think given enough time, we probably have a bit of clarity coming, but it certainly seems as if we have some noise in the short term. All things being equal, the US dollar seems to be moving in tandem against most currencies.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.