AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 09.02.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back gain near the 0.70 level. The market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but quite frankly I think the recent selloff that we have seen is more likely than not going to be important, as it was brutal, and moves like that very rarely in a vacuum, I do a fully anticipate that the Aussie continues to fall, perhaps down to the 50-Day EMA. Underneath there, we have the 200-Day EMA.

If we break down through those moving averages, then it’s very likely that the US dollar will be strengthening against most things, not just the Australian dollar. At that point, I would anticipate that the market could go looking to the 0.67 level. That’s an area that should be rather important, so I would anticipate quite a bit of a push back at that point. Ultimately, this is a situation where I do think that gravity is starting to come back into the Forex markets, so therefore I think we have just seen a nice correction, but we turned around to show the 50% Fibonacci level as resistance.

Ultimately, even if we do rally from here, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the sellers come in and step on the neck of the rally. It’s not until we break above the 0.7150 level that I would be fully convinced that the market was ready to continue going higher. Bond markets are starting to show more hawkish behavior coming out of the Fed as well, so that’s something you need to keep in mind.

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