AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Pierces 200-Day EMA

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 13.06.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to reach toward the 0.68 level. That being said, we are getting overstretched, and one would have to assume that sooner or later, we get some type of pullback. This is especially true due to the fact that the market has been straight up in the air for the last couple of weeks, and of course we have the Federal Reserve meeting coming up on Wednesday, which will obviously have a major influence on the US dollar.

Pay special attention to risk appetite in general, as that’s a major driver on the Australian dollar, and therefore I think at this point in time it’s likely that the overdone attitude in this market could cause a lot of headaches. After all, the 0.68 level above has been a major barrier that has been difficult to take out previously, and therefore I think the fact that we’ve shot straight up in the air to get here makes it even less likely to be taken out.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA near the 0.6675 level, and that should offer a certain amount of support. If we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that we could go to the 0.66 level underneath, which was the previous support level for the overall consolidation range. The question now isn’t so much as to whether or not the Australian dollar is bullish, but whether or not we have just simply entered that previous consolidation area that we spent so much time in previously.

That being said, if we were to take out the 0.68 level, then it does open up the possibility of a move to the 0.70 level. The one wildcard that could make that happen easily is the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, if for some reason they sound extraordinarily dovish. Keep in mind that the RBA recently did a surprise interest rate hike, but at this point almost all central banks are tight, perhaps with the exception of the Bank of Japan, so I don’t know how drastically the market would change unless they did something truly shocking.

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