AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Touches 200-Day EMA Again

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 05.12.22

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been all over the place during the trading on Friday, as the jobs of the United States, stronger than anticipated, showing signs of noisy behavior yet again. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you have to look at it through the prism of risk appetite, and of course interest-rate differential. Interest rates rose during the trading session after the jobs number came out, but at this point we are still looking at this as a situation where it’s going to come down to perception. Furthermore, we also have the “risk on rally” that a lot of people tried to kick off at the end of December, so it may only be a short-term pullback.

On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break down below the 0.67 level, it’s possible that we could see the Australian dollar reached down toward the 50-Day EMA. To the upside, if we were to break above the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that the Aussie could go looking to the 0.70 level. I think at this point it’s probably about an equal chance as to what happens next.You could take a look at this as a potential rising wedge forming.

Ultimately, if we do break down below the bottom of the rising wedge, that could be another reason to think that we start falling. At the end of the day the only thing you can think of is volatility going forward, because quite frankly, that’s how things have been. I don’t see this changing between now and the end of the year.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.