Outlook and Recommendation The AUD/USD added 16 points but remains near a 6 year low at the end of the month. The Aussie is trading at 0.7308. Monetary
The AUD/USD added 16 points but remains near a 6 year low at the end of the month. The Aussie is trading at 0.7308. Monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative over the coming quarters with the benchmark interest rate set at the record low level of 2.00%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely refrain from lowering rates further given the forthcoming monetary policy normalization by the US Federal Reserve and risks stemming from relatively high household debt.
Inflation accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2015 to 1.5% y/y, yet it still remains below the RBA’s 2-3% target. Analysts estimate price pressures will continue to intensify slightly in the second half of the year as AUD depreciation feeds through to higher import prices, closing 2015 and 2015 at 1.9% y/y and 2.2%, respectively. On the growth front, Australia’s current economic performance remains relatively soft. The economy continues to face the adverse impacts of low iron ore prices and weaker import demand from China
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events In August That You Should Be Monitoring:
Time |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
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Saturday, August 1, 2015 |
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05:00 |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
50.2 |
50.2 |
|
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Monday, August 3, 2015 |
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05:45 |
CNY |
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
|
48.2 |
|
||
11:55 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
51.5 |
51.5 |
|
||
12:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
51.6 |
51.4 |
|
||
18:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
53.5 |
53.5 |
|
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Tuesday, August 4, 2015 |
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05:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
||
08:30 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Aug) |
|
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
||
12:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI (Jul) |
|
58.4 |
58.1 |
|
||
Wednesday, August 5, 2015 |
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02:45 |
NZD |
Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
||
12:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI (Jul) |
|
58.0 |
58.5 |
|
||
16:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment |
|
215K |
237K |
|
||
18:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
56.2 |
56.0 |
|
||
Thursday, August 6, 2015 |
||||||||
05:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change (Jul) |
|
15.0K |
7.3K |
|
||
12:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production |
|
0.2% |
-0.6% |
|
||
15:00 |
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Aug) |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
Friday, August 7, 2015 |
||||||||
16:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) |
|
222K |
223K |
|
||
18:00 |
CAD |
Ivey PMI (Jul) |
|
53.0 |
55.9 |
|
||
Saturday, August 8, 2015 |
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06:00 |
CNY |
Trade Balance (Jul) |
|
|
46.54B |
|
||
Sunday, August 9, 2015 |
||||||||
06:00 |
CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
1.4% |
|
||
Tuesday, August 11, 2015 |
||||||||
13:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic |
|
|
29.7 |
|
||
Wednesday, August 12, 2015 |
||||||||
09:30 |
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
6.8% |
|
||
12:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
|
|
3.2% |
|
||
12:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change (Jul) |
|
|
7.0K |
|
||
Thursday, August 13, 2015 |
||||||||
16:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) |
|
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
||
Friday, August 14, 2015 |
||||||||
10:00 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
|
0.3% |
|
||
13:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
0.2% |
|
||
16:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
||
Tuesday, August 18, 2015 |
||||||||
12:30 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
|
|
||
Thursday, August 20, 2015 |
||||||||
12:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
-0.2% |
|
||
Friday, August 21, 2015 |
||||||||
16:30 |
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
|
|
||
16:30 |
CAD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
|
|
0.9% |
|
||
Monday, August 31, 2015 |
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|
Holiday |
United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday |