AUDUSD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains for the Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 20.02.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially rallied rather significantly during the week, to break above the 0.70 level. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that we have seen a bit of sellers just above there. At this point, we have fallen rather sharply, therefore it looks like we are going to try to break down from here, perhaps down to the 0.67 level. All things being equal, you should also pay attention to the fact that the 50-Week EMA is slicing through the candlestick for the week, and it does suggest that we are going to continue to see a lot of trouble.

The 50% Fibonacci level is an area that we slammed up against, and now it looks like we may be trying to turn things around and continue the overall negativity that we had seen for a while. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to drop towards the 0.67 level where we have seen previous support. The market will continue to be very highly correlated to risk appetite in general, as the Australian dollar is so highly leveraged to the commodity market. The fact that we formed a huge tail at the top of this candlestick does suggest that there are a lot of sellers out there, and I do think that it’s probably only a matter of time before we see a lot of sellers on any hint of a rally, perhaps on a shorter-term chart though. Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns out there about inflation, which also helps the US dollar in general.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.