AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, August 24 – August 28, 2015 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD finished lower last week as market-wide risk aversion drove investors away from the higher-yielding currency. Falling commodity and equity markets have created speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to embark on further monetary easing. Even after last Tuesday’s RBA minutes suggested the central bank was happy with the currency’s value, traders are now pricing in at least one 25 basis point cut in the next 12 months. 

This week, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to address any concerns with the turbulence in the global economy when he delivers a speech at the National Reform summit organized by The Australian and The Australian Financial Review newspapers. If Stevens suggests that the RBA is uneasy about recent developments and has started to consider further easing then look for further pressure on the Aussie this week. If Stevens shrugs off the recent turmoil in the global markets as a short-term event then the Aussie may see renewed support. 

This week, the AUD/USD is likely to be more sensitive to U.S. reports and events. This week’s key reports include durable goods, home sales, consumer confidence and preliminary GDP. FOMC Member Lockhart is scheduled to speak on Monday. He may move the markets if he gives his opinion on interest rates. Later in the week, central bankers are set to meet at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium and FOMC Member Fischer is scheduled to speak. 

Even if the U.S. reports show the economy is improving, there will still be some uncertainty about a September Fed rate hike. This is because recent risk aversion may cause a further delay in the Fed’s tightening plans. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

 Important Reports to Watch this Week: 

       Date                   Time            Curr                                Event                                                                        Previous Forecast