Bitcoin (BTC) Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady at 24/100 to Support BTC

Key Insights:

• Following a choppy Friday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by a modest 0.05% on a range-bound Saturday.
• There were no crypto news headlines to provide direction ahead of key economic indicators next week.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 24/100 despite the range-bound session.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.05%. Reversing a 0.09% decline from Friday, BTC ended the day at $21,582.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a morning low of $21,329. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level at $21,059, bitcoin rose to a late afternoon high of $21,943.

Falling short of the First Major Resistance level at $22,059, BTC eased back to end the day at sub-$21,600.

Uncertainty over Fed monetary policy following the Friday nonfarm payrolls from the US left BTC range bound.

Crypto market sensitivity to US economic indicators was evident throughout this week. Bitcoin and the broader market found support from less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes before faltering on better-than-expected NFP numbers from the US.

Next week, the crypto market will need to consider several key economic indicators. These include US inflation numbers (Wed), US weekly jobless claims and wholesale inflation figures (Thurs), GDP numbers from China (Fri), and US retail sales figures (Fri).

Upbeat US numbers would give the Fed the option for a 75-basis rate hike this month. However, weak stats from China would fuel fears of a recession and support a more moderate 50-basis point hike.

In the week ending July 8, the NASDAQ 100 rallied by 4.56%, with bitcoin gaining 11.92%, Monday through Friday.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady at 24/100

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 24/100. Easing fears of a recession and the less hawkish Fed minutes continued to support the move towards the “Fear” zone that begins at 25/100.

Hitting the highest level since a May 5, 27/100, a continued upward trend would indicate a marked shift in investor sentiment.

A bitcoin return to the “Fear” zone at 25/100 will now be the key for the bitcoin bulls.

The Index last sat in the “Fear” zone on May 5, when bitcoin stood at $36,630.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.25% to $21,529.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $21,591 before falling to a low of $21,460.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $21,618 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,904 and test resistance at $22,000.

BTC would need a bullish session to support a breakout from the Saturday high of $21,943.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $22,231 and resistance at $22,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $22,848.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $21,291 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,500, with the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $21,005 likely to limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $20,391.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $20,918.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA; bitcoin price positive.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would bring the Major Resistance Levels and the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,500, into play.

However, a retreat through the 100-day EMA would test support at $21,000.

On a trend analysis basis (See BTC – NASDAQ Chart), bitcoin would need a move through a May 30 high of $32,503 to then target the March 28 high of $48,192 into play. Near-term, resistance at $25,000 will likely be the first test in the event of a breakout from $22,000.