Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast: Will BTC Break $123K? ETF Flows and Fed Policy in Focus

Bitcoin Under Pressure as ETF Outflows Accelerate—Can Bulls Retake $123K?

On Saturday, August 23, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.26%, partially reversing Friday’s 3.27% gain to close at $114,679. BTC failed to break $120,000 for the ninth straight session.

US BTC-spot ETF market outflows weighed on investor sentiment after Friday’s Powell-induced rally. According to Farside Investors, key flows for the week ending August 22 included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net outflows of $615 million, the first since April 2025.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $235.3 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $182.3 million.

In total, seven spot ETF issuers reported net outflows in the week, leading to total weekly net outflows of $1.179 billion. Crucially, a six-day outflow streak left the BTC-spot ETF market with a $1.19 billion deficit for August, weighing on BTC demand.

ETH Falls Short of $5,000 as ETF Outflows Bite

While the US BTC-spot ETF market weighed on BTC, weekly ETH-spot ETF outflows left Ethereum (ETH) below $5,000. ETH dropped 1.08% on Saturday, August 23, partially reversing the previous day’s 14.31% surge to close at $4,779. Notably, ETH struck a new all-time high of $4,890 on August 22 before easing back.

While the US ETH-spot ETF market reported net inflows on August 22, weekly net outflows of $241.1 million weighed on ETH. Despite weekly outflows, the ETH-spot ETF market continued outmuscling the BTC-spot ETF market in August. President of Nova Dius Wealth, Nate Geraci, remarked:

“Spot ETH ETFs w/ $340mil inflows yesterday… So far in August: Spot eth ETFs = $2.8bil inflows. Spot btc ETFs = $1.2bil outflows. Since beginning of July: Spot eth ETFs = $8.2bil inflows. Spot btc ETFs = $4.2bil inflows. Notable recent shift.”

See our in-depth ETH vs BTC ETF flow breakdown here.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Legislative developments: the CLARITY Act’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US economic data: US Consumer Confidence, GDP, jobless claims, Personal Income and Outlays Report.
• Federal Reserve policy and statements.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Falling US recession risks, dovish Fed chatter, bipartisan support for crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high of $123,731.
• Bearish Scenario: Rising US recession risks, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative roadblocks, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $110,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while holding above the 200-day EMA. The longer-term trend remains bullish, but $100K remains a crucial support if momentum fades.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $115,000 could pave the way toward $120,000. A sustained move through $120,000 may allow bulls to target the August 14 record high of $123,731.
• On the downside, a break below $110,000 could pave the way to the 200-day EMA. If breached, $100,000 would be the next key support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum Outlook Remains Bullish as Spot ETF Flows Rebound

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), the token remains well above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating bullish momentum.

• Upside target: A breakout above the August 22 all-time high of $4,890 could bring $5,000 into play. A sustained move through the $5,000 mark may pave the way to $6,000.
• On the downside, a break below $4,750 opens the door to testing the $4,500 support level. If breached, the next key support level sits at $4,085.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.