Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Divergence With Gold and Equities Sparks Bounce Hopes

Bitcoin Clings to $110K as Weekly ETF Inflows Battle Daily Outflows

On Saturday, September 6, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.39%, following Friday’s 0.06% loss, closing at $110,263. Despite the pullback, BTC held above the key $110,000 level for the second consecutive session.

US BTC-spot ETF market outflows weighed on sentiment going into the Saturday session. According to Farside Investors, BTC-spot ETF issuers reported net outflows of $160.1 million on Friday, September 5.

A weaker-than-expected US Jobs Report revived economic jitters, spooking investors. US unemployment rose to 4.3% in August (July: 4.2%) as nonfarm payrolls increased by a modest 22k (July: 79k). Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 75k.

However, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total weekly net inflows of $250.3 million, extending inflows from the previous week. Weekly inflows lifted BTC, which has gained 1.76% for the week. According to Farside Investors, key weekly inflows included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net inflows of $434.3 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) had net inflows of $33.2 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $25.1 million.
• Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported total net outflows of $228.1 million.

While weekly flows bolstered BTC demand at $110,000, inflows failed to reverse August’s total net outflows of $749.2 million. The deficit left BTC trading well below its record high of $123,731 (August 14) and trailing the S&P 500.

Despite two consecutive weeks of net inflows, BTC has fallen 2.01% amid lingering macroeconomic headwinds. In contrast, the S&P 500 has gained 1.52%, while gold has soared 7.43%, challenging BTC’s status as digital gold.

Market intelligence platform Santiment commented on BTC’s divergence with US equities and gold, stating:

“In cases like this divergence over the past 2 weeks, Bitcoin (and altcoins) have a high probability of playing ‘catch up’ when they trail world economy price trends for a sustained period of time. The larger the gap between equities and BTC gets, the stronger the argument there is for an upcoming crypto bounce.”

ETH Extends Losses as Spot ETF Outflows Accumulate

While Bitcoin held at $110,000 on weekly spot ETF inflows, Ethereum (ETH) came under increased selling pressure. ETH fell 0.75% on Saturday, September 6, reversing Friday’s 0.21% gain to close at $4,275. Investors have locked in profits since ETH struck a record high of $4,958 on August 24.

The US ETH-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $446.8 million on Friday, September 5. Friday’s outflows left the ETH-spot ETF market with total weekly net outflows of $766.3 million, weighing on sentiment. Notably, ETH has fallen 2.54% this week, contrasting with BTC’s smaller 2.01% weekly decline, supported by weekly BTC-spot ETF inflows.

See our in-depth ETH vs BTC ETF flow breakdown here.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Legislative developments: the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US economic data: US CPI Report and Jobless Claims.
• Federal Reserve policy and statements.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing US recession risks, dovish Fed signals, bipartisan support for crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high of $123,731.
• Bearish Scenario: Rising US stagflation risks, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative roadblocks, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $100,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while holding above the 200-day EMA. The longer-term trend remains bullish, but $100,000 remains a critical longer-term support level if momentum continues to fade.

• Upside Target: A breakout above the 50-day EMA could pave the way toward the $115,000 level. A sustained move through $115,000 opens the door to testing the record high of $123,731.
• On the downside, $107,500 is the near-term support, with $100,000 acting as a key psychological floor.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum Outlook Hinged on ETF Flows

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), the token remains above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, despite this week’s pullback, indicating a bullish bias.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $4,500 could allow bulls to retest the August 24 high of $4,958. A sustained move through the $4,958 may pave the way toward $6,000.
• On the downside, a drop below the $4,085 support level and the 50-day EMA could bring the $3,563 support level into play.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.