Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast: Bulls Eye $120K Despite Ethereum ETF Momentum

Bitcoin Slips as ETH Sees Demand Surge

Ethereum’s (ETH) rally is stealing the spotlight from Bitcoin (BTC) as spot ETF inflows surge, pushing ETH above $4,000 for the first time in eight months. With traders rotating out of BTC despite bullish technical indicators, the crypto market faces a pivotal week driven by ETF flows, macroeconomic data, and US legislation.

On Saturday, BTC slipped 0.48%, following Friday’s 0.83% loss, closing at $115,958. Despite the two-day losing streak, BTC avoided a break below the crucial $115,000 support level, underscoring underlying bullish resilience.

Crypto-Spot ETF Market Flow Trends Drive Demand Shifts

Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market trailed the ETH-spot ETF market by inflows, triggering the rotation into ETH.

According to Farside Investors, the US BTC-spot ETF market recorded total net inflows of $253.2 million in the week ending August 8. Key weekly flows included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had weekly net inflows of $188.9 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net inflows of $62.3 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) and VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) recorded combined net inflows of $56.2 million.
• Meanwhile, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $55.2 million.

Despite weekly net inflows, the US BTC-spot ETF market recorded total net outflows of $559.1 million in August to date.

While BTC faces pivotal macro tests, ETH’s momentum may hinge on sustaining ETF inflow dominance. The ETH-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $461 million in the week ending August 8. After robust inflows for the week, the ETH-spot ETF market had total net inflows of $174.3 million in August to date. ETH extended its winning streak to four sessions on August 9, as spot ETF inflows sent the token above $4,000 for the first time since December 2024.

See our in-depth ETH vs BTC ETF flow breakdown here.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Legislative developments: the CLARITY Act’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• Upcoming US economic data, including the US CPI Report, Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Dovish Fed rhetoric, easing US recession risks, bipartisan support for crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high.
• Bearish Scenario: Hotter US inflation, hawkish Fed signals, stagflation fears, legislative setbacks, or ETF outflows could drag BTC below $110,000.

Read our latest breakdown on macro drivers influencing BTC and ETH here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remains above key trend indicators, including the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias despite the recent losses.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $120,000 could allow the bulls to target the July 14 record high of $122,055. A sustained move through $122,055 may pave the way toward the $130,000 mark.
• On the downside, a break below the 50-day EMA opens the door to the test of the $110,000 support level. Sustained selling pressure may expose the 200-day EMA and the crucial $100,000 support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum Builds Momentum on ETF Flows

Turning to ETH, the token trades above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bullish momentum. BTC’s struggle near $116K contrasts sharply with ETH’s push past $4,000.

• Upside target: A breakout above the August 10 high of $4,332 could bring the $4,500 level into play. A sustained move through the $4,500 mark may allow the bulls to target the November 21 record high of $4,870 (Binance Exchange).
• On the downside, a break below the $4,085 support level exposes the $3,563 support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.