Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: $4,032 Tests Uptrend Line – Recovers 20-Day MA

Friday’s Support Test

Gold realigned its bullish path Friday, sliding to a four-day low of $4,032 before buyers triggered a sharp intraday reversal. The decline briefly undercut the converged 20-day average at $4,065 and 10-day average at $4,059, but the bounce from the uptrend line—defining short-term dynamic support—swiftly recovered both levels.

Trend Line Defense

The uptrend line connecting recent higher lows held firm, demonstrating the bull trend’s resilience. This classic behavior—pullback to test prior resistance as support—reinforces continuation potential. Thursday’s $4,245 high now stands as a lower swing high.

Weekly Shooting Star Alert

The weekly chart is shaping a potential shooting star candlestick. Confirmation requires a close below this week’s $3,997 low, which would also violate the uptrend line and both moving averages. Such a break targets the two-week low at $3,929, then the $3,886 swing low.

Upside Measured Targets

Overcoming $4,245 eyes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,275. A clean push above that level brings the $4,381 trend high into focus, with the 127.2% extension of the recent decline projecting $4,516 as the next major objective.

Dual Channel Breakout

This week saw a second breakout above the top boundaries of two rising trend channels. The shorter-term channel is highlighted; the longer-term top line links the 2011 high and parallels the uptrend from the August 2018 higher low. This repeat breakout signals persistent bullish control.

Overbought Caution

The dual channel breach also flags overbought conditions. A weekly close below the converging channel tops—near current resistance—would indicate supply holding and favor a deeper correction.

Outlook

The uptrend line and recovered 20-day/10-day averages keep gold in bullish posture targeting $4,275–$4,381. A weekly close below $3,997–$4,032 would trigger the shooting star, break the uptrend line, and open $3,929–$3,886. Until then, dips to dynamic support remain buyable within the intact channel structure.

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