Natural Gas Price Forecast: Drop to $4.38 Tests 10-Day & Channel Support

Friday’s Support Test

Natural gas initially fell on Friday, carving a three-day low of $4.38 and a lower daily high before buyers triggered a sharp intraday recovery. The low aligned with the rising 10-day average at $4.41, marking the first meaningful test of this dynamic benchmark.

Confluent Support Cluster

The $4.38 zone also matched the 150% extended rising trend channel line (dashed) and the lower boundary of the current small rising channel. This triple confluence has proven effective at catching dips, reinforcing its validity if price holds recent gains, while a drop below it indicates a change in sentiment.

Resistance Completion

Thursday’s $4.69 trend high finalized the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.64, while simultaneously tagging the upper line of the small channel and the 175% extension of the larger rising channel. Natural gas continues to respect these measured levels.

Channel Angle Dynamics

The steep ascent allows potential for marginal new highs while price hugs below the 175% line. Diminished bullish momentum within the tight channel, however, elevates the risk of a bearish turn lower.

Momentum Warning

The RSI oscillator hit its highest reading in a year—since October 2024—and now teeters on the brink of dropping below the overbought 70 threshold. A decisive close beneath the 10-day average and $4.38 low would confirm weakening and target lower support levels.

Downside Support Map

First deeper reaction zone sits at the June interim swing high of $4.15. More significant defense arrives at the sharply rising 20-day average near $3.98, soon converging with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.94—both outlined on the chart as the primary lower price band.

Outlook

The $4.38–$4.41 confluence remains the immediate bull-bear pivot. Holding here preserves the small channel and potential for one final push along the 175% line. A clean break below $4.38–$4.41 activates the $4.15–$3.94 support zone. RSI rollover from yearly extremes favors the correction scenario but only confirmed violation of the 10-day average shifts control to sellers.

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