Bitcoin (BTC) Slips as Arizona Vetoes State Reserve Bill, BlackRock ETF Flows Impress

Bitcoin ETF Flows Counter Democrats’ Anti-Crypto Stance

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.98% on Saturday, May 3, reversing Friday’s 0.50% gain to close at $95,988. Despite the pullback, BTC avoided sub-$95,000 for the second session, highlighting robust support.

News of Arizona Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs vetoing the recently passed Bitcoin reserve bill dashed hopes for the first-ever state-level Bitcoin reserve bill. Governor Hobbs justified her decision, stating:

“Today, I vetoed Senate Bill 1025. The Arizona State Retirement System is one of the strongest in the nation because it makes sound and informed investments. Arizonians’ retirement funds are not the place for the state to try untested investments like virtual currency.”

Governor Hobbs’ stance may encourage broader Democratic resistance to digital assets. A political divide on Capitol Hill could stall Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act.

Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year holding period, potentially a major demand catalyst. She touted the Bitcoin Act on May 2, saying:

“The BITCOIN Act is the only solution to our nation’s $36T debt. I’m grateful for a forward-thinking president who not only recognizes this, but acts on it.”

BlackRock Dominates US BTC-Spot ETF Market

While prospects for the Bitcoin Act weakened, US BTC-spot ETF flows cushioned the downside. According to Farside Investors, ETF issuers reported total net inflows of $1,805.1 million in the week ending May 2 after inflows of $3,033 million the previous week.

• BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated the market, with net inflows of $2,480.9 million.
• However, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $457.6 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported outflows of $201.1 million.

Easing fears of a US recession, following an upbeat US Jobs Report, and easing US-China trade tensions, drove demand for BTC-spot ETFs.

Nate Geraci, ETF President Store, shared the top weekly inflows and outflows across the ETF space. Notably, IBIT ranked second behind the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which had weekly net inflows of $3,597 million. Geraci added:

“Now 14 straight days of inflows for iShares Bitcoin ETF… $4+ bil total. IBIT in top 10 of all ETFs by inflows this year (out of nearly 4,200 ETFs).”

BlackRock’s net inflows of $43,681 million since launch underscores the importance of major ETF issuers’ presence in the crypto ETF space.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

Several key catalysts will influence BTC’s near-term trajectory:

• Global trade risks: US-China trade developments could influence risk sentiment, including demand for BTC and the broader crypto market.
• Macroeconomic indicators: US economic data could dictate recession concerns and influence the Fed rate path.
• The Bitcoin Act: Progress on the Bitcoin Act could fuel demand.
• US BTC-spot ETF market flows: Spot ETF flow trends remain a critical barometer of market sentiment and price trends.

Key BTC Price Scenarios include:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, rising Fed rate cut bets, legislative progress on the Bitcoin Act, and continued ETF inflows may drive BTC toward $100,000.
• Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, a hawkish Fed, legislative gridlock, or ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $80,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), affirming bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A break above the May 2 high of $97,997 could pave the way to $100,000. A decisive move past $100,000 may enable the bulls to target the all-time high of $109,312.
• Downside Risk: A drop below $95,000 could bring the $90,742 support level into play. Increasing selling pressure could expose the 50-day EMA and potentially the $86,263 support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.43 suggests BTC could climb toward the record high of $109,312 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Turning to (Ethereum) ETH, ETH-spot ETF flows remain key near-term price drivers. The US ETH-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $106.8 million in the week ending May 2, down from $157.1 million the previous week. Nevertheless, net inflows helped ETH return to $1,873.

However, ETH continues trading below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming a bearish bias.

• Upside target: A breakout above the 50-day EMA could pave the way to test $2,000. A push through $2,000 may enable the bulls to target the $2,308 resistance level.
• Downside risks: If ETH falls below $1,750, the April 22 low of $1,538 would be the next key support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.96 suggests ETH has room to reach $2,000 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators in real-time here.