Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds at 46 as BTC Falls Short of $25,000

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.16%. While falling short of $25,000, BTC avoided sub-$24,000 for the first time since June 12.
• Positive US economic indicators and softer inflation have left some uncertainty over the Fed’s September move, testing investor appetite on Saturday.
• Despite the choppy session, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 46/100.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.16%. Following a 1.96% gain on Friday, BTC ended the day at $24,450. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$24,000 for the first time since June 12.

A bullish start to the weekend saw BTC rise to an early high of $24,892. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,711 before sliding to a low of $24,306.

Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,862, BTC revisited $24,606 before easing back.

There were no cues from the crypto news wires to provide direction, leaving BTC flat by the end of the day. Early support from Friday’s positive Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectation numbers failed to hold. While US inflation softened in July, inflation remains well above the Fed target, suggesting the need for more aggressive policy moves.

Uncertainty over the September FOMC policy decision could test investor resilience and could give FOMC members more influence over the near term.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds at 46/100 Despite Choppy BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 46/100, supported by BTC avoiding sub-$24,000 for the first time since June 12.

While uncertainty over the Fed will likely test investor appetite, the Index reflects a shift in investor sentiment, aligned with the technical indicators.

Currently sitting on the Fear/Neutral border, the Index will need to move into the Neutral zone to affirm the shift in investor sentiment. The Index last visited the Neutral zone on April 6. A return to Neutral would support a BTC move through $25,000 to bring $30,000 into play.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.01% to $24,452. A range-bound first hour saw BTC fall to an early low of $24,355 before rising to a high of $24,454.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $24,549 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,792 and the Saturday high of $24,892.

BTC would need a bullish start to the session to support a breakout from $25,500.

An extended crypto rally would see BTC test resistance at $25,000 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,135. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $25,721.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $24,206 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$24,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $23,965.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $23,377.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,860.

The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, the signals BTC price positive.

A further 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a run at R1 ($24,792) to bring $25,000 back into play.

However, a fall through S1 ($24,206) to sub-$24,000 could see BTC test S2 ($23,965) and the 50-day EMA. The 100-day EMA currently sits at $23,462.

Trend Analysis

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $24,896 and $25,000 would target the June high of $31,956. Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,860, would support the current upward trend. From $32,000, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through $20,000 and the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.

However, as shown below, BTC is on a trend of higher lows, supporting a more bullish outlook.