Bitcoin (BTC) is inching closer to a major bearish breakdown that could send its price toward the $60,000 level, according to a recurring fractal from past market cycles.
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the Horizon
On the weekly chart, BTC/USD has been trading inside a rising wedge pattern, a bearish setup formed when price makes higher highs and higher lows but within two converging trendlines.
Rising wedges typically resolve with a breakdown, especially when accompanied by fading momentum signals.
As of Sept. 26, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of this wedge near $108,000, with technical projections eyeing a downside target around $62,855 — roughly 40% below current levels.
This area aligns closely with Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a historically reliable long-term support zone.
The bearish outlook gains weight from the relative strength index (RSI), which has been printing lower highs since late 2023 despite Bitcoin logging higher highs on the price chart.
The negative divergence often signals weakening buying momentum and an increased likelihood of trend reversals.
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See all Bitcoin forecastsBTC Fractal Repetition: History Rhyming Again?
The current wedge setup mirrors that of the earlier cycle.
Both featured steep rallies into overbought conditions and extended consolidation inside contracting channels. In both cases, momentum indicators flashed red even as price hovered near record levels.
A divergence such as the current one appeared during the February 2021–April 2022 cycle, when Bitcoin carved out a comparable rising wedge. Back then, BTC broke below its wedge support and crashed from around $47,000 to nearly $15,500, a decline of over 65%.
If the fractal repeats, Bitcoin could face weeks, if not months, of bearish pressure, revisiting lower valuation zones before stabilizing. The $60,000–$63,000 region thus becomes the primary “line in the sand” for bulls to defend.
Macro Factors in Play
It is important to note that macroeconomic conditions differ vastly from the 2021-2022 zone.
Back then, the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively, draining liquidity from risk assets. However, the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts today, while Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows remain strong. These differences could soften the extent of any downturn.
Still, as technicals stand, Bitcoin risks a steep pullback before resuming its broader bull trend. Unless BTC decisively reclaims the wedge’s upper boundary, the path of least resistance tilts lower, with $60,000 as the next major checkpoint.
