What next for Bitcoin Price as Long-term Holders Move $900M BTC in 24-Hours?

Ibrahim Ajibade
Updated: Apr 10, 2024, 09:30 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) price opened trading at $69,144 on April 10, down 5% from the weekly top of $72,725 recorded on April 8.
  • On April 9, Long-term investors were spotted offloading 11,600 BTC.
  • In the Bitcoin derivatives markets, bulls stand to lose long positions worth $1.72 billion if spot prices tumble below $65,000
Bitcoin BTC price forecast

In this article:

Bitcoin (BTC) price tumbled as low as $68,234 on April 9, down 5% from the 25-day peak of $72,753 recorded barely 24 hours earlier. On-chain data shows how long-term investors booking profits ahead of the forthcoming halving could trigger more market volatility.

Will Bitcoin ETFs muster sufficient demand to keep prices above $70,000 or is BTC at risk of a further correction below $65,000?

Long-term holders offload $900M BTC in 24hours

Bitcoin price fell 5% within the daily time-frame on April 9, with derivatives bull traders booking over 140 million in liquidation losses. The market tumble was largely attributed to the 2,990 BTC outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC ETF.

However, on-chain data long-term investors offloading coins to lock-in profits ahead of the Bitcoin halving may have also contributed to the market downtrend.

Santiment’s Dormant Circulation Supply (90d) metric tracks the number of BTC coins previously held unmoved for 90-days or more that were traded in a given day.  This serves as a proxy for monitoring long-term holder’s trading activity.

Bitcoin (BTC) Dormant Circulation Supply | Source: Santiment
Bitcoin (BTC) Dormant Circulation Supply | Source: Santiment

As seen in the chart above, 13,200 BTC previous-held unmoved for over 90-days were traded on April 9. Valued at the current prices of $69,000 per coin, the long-term investors have unloaded coins worth $910 million in the short-term market supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

This shows that, combined with the negative sentiment surrounding the  US CPI data for March 2024, and Grayscale’s GBTC outflows, long-term holders have started moving to lock-in profits to avoid possible downsides from the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, slated for April 19.

Historical data confirms that, BTC prices have often wobbled during periods of increased movement from long-term investors.

With the halving now 9 days away, if more Bitcoin long-term holders seek to book profits, there could be a supply glut in the BTC spot markets in the coming days, which will likely trigger more price volatility.

BTC Price Forecast: Bulls to lose $1.7B if $65k support caves

As the $900 million BTC recently offloaded by the long-term investors makes its way into exchanges and OTC desks, Bitcoin price could tumble further towards $65,000 in the days ahead.

In the derivatives, markets, the number of BTC leverage SHORT positions, have now exceeded the LONGs, further affirming the overwhelming expectations of further downside.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast | Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast | Source: Coinglass

However, BTC bulls could mount a major support buy-wall at the $65,017 considering that over 1.74 billion LONG positions could be liquidated if price fall below that threshold.

If the bull traders begin to make covering purchase to mitigate losses, BTC price could consolidate above the $66,000 – $69,000 ahead of the halving.

But if the market flips bullish as investors look to make last-minute purchases before the halving, Bitcoin price could advance towards the $75,000 mark.

About the Author

Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.

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