Bitcoin (BTC) has gone up by 6% in the past 24 hours to $96,000 as the market reacted positively to controlled inflation.
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation came in at 2.7% in December, in line with analysts’ estimates for the period.
Crypto prices jumped right after the report came out, possibly as it may prompt Federal Reserve officials to revisit their projections for interest rates this year.
At the time of writing, the FedWatch1 survey shows that 95% of analysts believe that the U.S. central bank will not cut rates this year. Meanwhile, the odds of a cut in March have been progressively dropping from 41% to 26%.
Even though the market does not seem to be envisioning a reduction in interest rates, controlled inflation gives analysts a better foothold to embrace a risk-on attitude.
Interestingly, Wall Street’s response to yesterday’s CPI print favors a bullish outlook as $753 million flowed to BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs)2 after this inflation report.
Combined with Monday’s $100m+ inflows, nearly $900 million was poured into BTC ETFs in a heartbeat.
In addition, market sentiment has been progressively improving. The Fear and Greed Index has now reached 52 and is leaning toward bullish territory. In just two months, this sentiment gauge has recovered from a record low of 10.
As we have mentioned in previous Bitcoin price predictions, this kind of recovery is similar to what we saw in April. Remember what happened then? BTC jumped to a new all-time high just five months after the F&G hit 15.
The daily chart shows that BTC has stepped out of consolidation and seems to be heading to retest the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around $100,000. This is both a relevant psychological and technical threshold that the token needs to cross to keep the rally going.
BTC/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to favor a bullish outlook for the token as well, as it has kept moving higher and is currently nearing “overbought” territory.
The price’s reaction to a touch of the 200-day EMA will be critical to determining BTC’s next moves. A decisive rejection, typically confirmed by a big red candle and accompanied by above-average trading volumes, may signal that this is a sell wall that bulls don’t have the strength to break yet.
Meanwhile, if we get a decisive break above $100K, that may mark the beginning of BTC’s next leg up. At this point, traders should be cautious regarding a potential “fakeout” around the 200-day EMA.
BTC/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView
This is something fairly common that has happened to BTC in the past. Take the chart above as an example, in both December 2021 and April 2022, BTC failed to climb above the 200D EMA and then collapsed from from $47K to $18K right after.
In both cases, a big red candle confirmed the bull trap. Hence, if the price climbs above $100,000, make sure it takes a fair distance from the 200D EMA to confirm that this is a true breakout.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.