Bitcoin Price News: January’s Slow Start Is Not Necessarily Bad News for BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) has gone up by nearly 7% since the year started, as market sentiment has picked up lately.

We mentioned months ago that the Fear and Greed Index’s record-low of 10¹ could have established a local bottom for the top cryptos, as historical patterns suggested.

This thesis has been supported by the latest price action, as BTC has recovered from around $84,000 back then to $93,000 at the time of writing.

The token has entered a phase of consolidation as the consequences of the October 10 flash crash seem to be dissipating.

An unexpected cascade liquidation back then wiped out billions from the crypto market and spooked traders to the point that some believe that something fundamentally “broke.”

Cryptos are quite familiar with allegations of being “dead”, “broke”, and so on. So, the magnitude of this deleveraging event just emphasized how FOMO had taken over to the point of making the uptrend unsustainable.

Open Interest Flattens and Sets the Stage for a Progressive Recovery

Open interest in BTC futures² shows that traders’ participation declined lately to levels not seen since the December 2024 – February 2025 bear market. Hence, market conditions currently favor a recovery as excess leverage has been effectively flushed.

The “smart money” might be progressively coming back at a point when macroeconomic conditions have improved via lower rates, while President Trump’s pro-crypto administration continues to push forward appropriate regulations to help this industry thrive.

In the long run, these are all positive factors that support a bullish outlook for BTC, no matter what has happened in the near term.

That said, a supportive regulatory and macro backdrop does not necessarily mean that we will get another all-time high in the next few months, as Bitcoin’s technical indicators still call for some caution.

Weak January = Strong February for Bitcoin?

Historically, January has been a good month for BTC. Data from CoinGlass shows that, in 7 out of the last 6 years, the token has ended the month with a positive performance.

These historical gains range from 0.62% in 2024 to 44% in 2013. Thus far, BTC leans toward finishing the month with a positive result. However, if we finish with gains below 9%, this would be second-worst January for the token in these past 14 years.

The good news is: February’s odds are much better.

Let’s look at history once again. After its underwhelming January 2024 1% gain, BTC closed the next month with a robust 44% uptick and another 17% in March.

In contrast, the next two best first months of the year for the token, January 2014 and January 2025, were followed by strong drops of 31% and 17%, respectively.

So these are my baseline scenarios for the top crypto, depending on what happens this month.

Scenario 1 – Weak performance in January, strong boost in February

In 10 out of the past 13 years, BTC has closed February with gains. One of its best Februaries came after a 1% gain the month before. Hence, if we finish the month with weak gains, we may get a strong boost in the next one.

Scenario 2 – Big drop (2025 all over again)

BTC/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

This scenario is also backed by historical patterns. When BTC finished with low double-digit gains in January, the next month was quite bad. In fact, those two times were among the few when BTC ended February at a loss.

Hence, if we close the month with a 10% gain, brace for some further downside.